Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AMENDMENTS FOR THE YEAR 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Jun 6, 2024 | Budget Amendments

The Budget Law approved by the National Congress is amended during the year in accordance with the delegation of powers arising from the regulations in force. Within this framework, it is important to analyze those amendments to provide updated data on the budgetary dynamics throughout the fiscal year.

To this end, these periodic reports focus on the analysis of budgetary amendments made by Administrative Decisions of the Chief of Cabinet of Ministers (JGM) or by Necessity and Urgency Decrees (DNU).

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILLS ON THE NATIONAL TEACHER INCENTIVE FUND

by Nicolas Perez | May 30, 2024 | Cost Estimates

The seven bills analyzed propose to reinstate the Teacher Incentive Fund (FONID) from the first day of 2024 for different periods of time, which means paying retroactively the past months and then continuing with the monthly accrual.

The FONID was created for the “improvement” of teachers’ salaries, as a remunerative and non-bonus supplement.

The Fund was complemented by the National Teacher Salary Compensation Program, still in force, both of which are covered by appropriations provided for in the national budget.

No payments for these purposes were made this year.
In 2023, expenditures related to the budget program National Teacher Incentive Fund had a share of 0.18% of GDP.
In the last quarter of last year, teachers received an average monthly amount of ARS25,000 for this concept, between 5.9% and 12.3% of the gross salary of a primary school teacher with ten years of seniority.
The restitution of FONID would imply an expenditure of ARSS1,294.77 billion for 2024, equivalent to 0.21% of GDP if inflation for the last quarter of 2023 is considered and 0.16% of GDP if only inflation for 2024 is taken into account.
Individual amounts would range from ARS43,994 in January to ARS90,786 in December.
If the benefit were applied to retirees, the additional fiscal cost would be equivalent to 0.01% of GDP for every 100,000 teachers.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – APRIL 2024

by Nicolas Perez | May 28, 2024 | Public Debt Operations

In April, the debt stock payable in pesos increased by 11.8% with respect to March, whereas that payable in foreign currency decreased by USD2.253 billion, largely as a result of the amortization of obligations with the IMF.

In April, the debt stock payable in pesos amounted to ARS136.021,294 billion.
The debt payable in foreign currency amounted to USD256.473 billion.
Of note was the payment to the IMF for USD1.927 billion under the stand-by arrangement in force.
Estimated debt servicing for the May-September term totals ARS22,256.249 billion in domestic currency and USD14.11 billion in foreign currency.
During the month of April, the Treasury did not record any net financing from Central Bank Temporary Advances.
Of the authorization to issue debt provided for in Section 37 of the Budget Law, the Executive Branch used 48% of the legal ceiling up to April 2024.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – APRIL 2024

MODIFICATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF TAX ON CREDITS AND DEBITS REVENUES – BILL S-2447-2023

by Nicolas Perez | May 20, 2024 | Cost Estimates

The bill proposes to share with the provinces 50% of tax on credits and debits revenues that are currently allocated entirely to ANSES (National Social Security Administration), after deducting the portion that is earmarked for AFIP (Federal Administration of Public Revenues) (1.9%).

ANSES would have a decrease in revenues equivalent to 0.77% of GDP.
Of this portion, the National Treasury would recover 0.30% of GDP without specific allocation. The provinces as a whole would receive 0.45% of GDP and ATNs (Contributions from the National Treasury) and the Judicial Branch 0.01% of GDP.
The proposed amendment is based on an agreement with the governors to offset the drop in the shared revenues resulting from the changes in the Income Tax.
Between 2004 and 2023, Income Tax revenues averaged 1.64% of GDP and 6.80% of national revenue. Successive regulatory changes during this period had an impact on the distribution of these resources.

TRANSFERS TO PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENTS – FIRST FOUR-MONTH TERM 2024

by Nicolas Perez | May 17, 2024 | Specific Budget Issues

The report compares automatic and non-automatic transfers to provinces and municipalities during the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2023, distinguishing between those allocated to cover current and capital expenditures.

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL S-2524-23 ON THE REPEAL OF THE AVIATION SECURITY TAX

by Nicolas Perez | May 16, 2024 | Cost Estimates

The aviation security tax paid by passengers on domestic and international flights to the Airport Security Police (PSA, by its initials in Spanish), the collection of which is not part of any item detailed in the national budget, is proposed to be eliminated.

According to PSA data, ARS4.901 billion were collected in 2023 and ARS8.94 billion are expected to be collected in 2024, based on the projection of the collection for the January-March term (ARS2.789 billion).
The resources are earmarked for the maintenance and updating of equipment for the optimization and modernization of the infrastructure and operating methods of the airport security system, but cannot finance the hiring of personnel for the provision of PSA services or the granting of incentives to its agents.
In 2023 revenues from the aviation security tax represented 9.5% of the total budget executed by the agency.