Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – NOVEMBER 2022

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 16, 2022 | Tax Revenue

Tax revenues amounted to ARS1,953.860 billion in November 2022, which implied a growth of 88.8% year-on-year (YoY). Adjusted for inflation, it decreased 2.2% YoY.

Among tax revenues, the increase in real terms in Income Tax, driven by the second advance for the extraordinary payment applicable to corporations. A higher level of economic activity compared to 2021 contributed to the good performance of VAT, also benefited by lower refunds.
Wealth Tax decreased because of a high base of comparison attributable to the difference in maturities that operated between fiscal periods.

Export Duties decreased because of the termination of the benefits established by the Export Increase Program (DNU 576/2022) and returned to the previous trend.

On the other hand, Social Security contributions showed a slight growth.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – NOVEMBER 2022

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 16, 2022 | Budget Execution

In the first eleven months of the year, the primary deficit in real terms was 7.7% lower than that accumulated in the same period of the previous year, and the financial deficit fell by 4.1%.

– The negative primary result for the period amounted to ARS1,954.512 billion, equivalent to 2.4% of GDP.
– Adding interest payments on the debt, the figure rises to ARS3,224.651 billion, 3.9% of GDP.
– With the reduction of the Solidarity and Extraordinary Contribution and without the Special Drawing Rights received last year, resources fell 4.5%.
– In the last five months, primary expenditures fell 18.8% year-on-year, which contrasts with the 12.5% increase in the first half of the year.
– In November, capital expenditures recorded the sharpest fall of the year (79.3%), basically because of the decrease in transfers to trust funds and State-owned enterprises.
– As of November, budget appropriations rose by 54.4%, and more than half of the increase was concentrated in pensions, energy subsidies and social programs.
– Ninety-five percent of the budget increases were approved by DNU and 5% by administrative decision.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – NOVEMBER 2022

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 15, 2022 | Public Debt Operations

Securities totaling ARS460.555 billion were placed in three auctions.
In addition, dual bonds maturing between June and September for USD5.715 billion were placed through a swap.
Interest of USD1.548 billion was paid, USD535 million to the IMF.
Debt maturities for December total the equivalent of USD10.291 billion.

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE LABOR SITUATION AND OF THE ACTIONS IMPLEMENTED BY THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FOR THE PROMOTION OF LABOR – DATA FOR THE YEAR 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 6, 2022 | Employment and Social Security

Argentina shows lower activity and employment rate than Latin America and the Caribbean and the OECD, and a higher unemployment rate than both of those regions.
The employment rate remained relatively stable during the 2007-2021 period, with upward and downward phases in economic activity.
Since 2012, there has been no increase in the percentage of workers under employment relationship.
Work activity falls sharply after the age of 40.
In Argentina, 17.4% of the active population of working age is neither employed nor looking for a job.
There are higher levels of unemployment, economic inactivity, and informality among women, despite their higher level of education.
Nearly half of unemployed women and a quarter of unemployed men hold university degrees.
Households in which one of the heads is informally employed or unemployed have worse indicators of living conditions, although there are formal workers living in poor and even indigent homes.
The number of people benefiting from employment programs is low, especially considering that the number of unemployed has increased since 2014.
The government’s labor market policy has changed its profile, replacing strategies to reinsert the unemployed into the formal market with the promotion of their own projects.
As there is no evidence in practice of a central planning of the Potenciar Trabajo program, guiding the projects to sustainable productive units that imply a real insertion in the formal labor market, it becomes a welfare or support program, instead of an effective labor market policy.
The levels of unemployment and informal work in the country far exceed the number of beneficiaries of Potenciar Trabajo, so this policy is not enough to change the employment and economic status of people who are in a highly vulnerable situation.

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE LABOR SITUATION AND OF THE ACTIONS IMPLEMENTED BY THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FOR THE PROMOTION OF LABOR - DATA FOR THE YEAR 2021

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL S-1836/2021

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 1, 2022 | Cost Estimates

The Bill under analysis proposes to include the department of Malargüe in the Province of Mendoza to the region known as Patagonia to obtain the same differential treatment as the provinces and municipalities that currently comprise it. The Argentine Congressional Budget Office does not have the necessary tools to make a proper assessment of the fiscal impact that could be caused by the approval of this Bill.

FISCAL IMPACT OF THE BILL ON THE DIFFERENTIAL PENSION SYSTEM FOR FOREST OR RURAL FIREFIGHTERS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL FIRE MANAGEMENT SERVICE

by Nicolas Perez | Nov 29, 2022 | Cost Estimates

Bill 0029-S-2022 proposes a differential pension system for workers who work or have worked as forest or rural fire fighters in national or provincial agencies of transferred pension funds, within the framework of the National Fire Management Service, Law 26,815.

Based on the information available, a potential universe of 894 workers was identified as beneficiaries of the differential pension system, of which 514 hold positions in national agencies and 380 in provincial agencies of transferred pension funds.

The workers in national agencies are under the Federal Fire Management System and work in the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (133 agents) and in the National Parks Administration (381 workers).

As for the firefighters of provincial agencies with transferred pension funds and those who are not currently working, there is no salary and personnel information available.

Based on this limitation, with the information referred to workers employed at the national level, an increase in contributions to the system of 7.4% (ARS18.1 million of higher annual income) is estimated for fiscal year 2023 in relation to what is expected to be collected through the general system (Law 24,241).

In terms of the system’s expenditure, an increase of 54.7% (ARS1.2 million higher annual expenditure) is estimated for 2023, with respect to the expenditure of the current system calculated based on 2 workers who would be in a position to request the differential benefit.