Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL S-1860/22 TO REDUCE INDIGENCE THROUGH THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE INCOME SUPPORT PROGRAM

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 26, 2022 | Cost Estimates

Bill S-1860/2022 aims at reducing indigence, guaranteeing access to adequate food for people who are in a situation of extreme vulnerability. To this end, it proposes the implementation of an Income Supplement, consisting of a monthly monetary benefit for the value of a Basic Food Basket.

To estimate the fiscal impact associated with the granting of the Income Supplement, it is necessary to quantify the universe of potential beneficiaries, a figure that will be decisive for the calculation.

Based on the number of potential beneficiaries estimated by the EPH (Permanent Household Survey) and taking the average value of the Basic Food Basket and this year’s GDP, the fiscal impact of the measure would amount to 0.31% of GDP. By 2023, this figure would imply an expenditure of approximately ARS460 billion.

If this policy were implemented, the percentage of individuals living in indigent households would be reduced by 65%, but only if the current assistance programs are maintained.

BUDGET BILL 2023 – NATIONAL PUBLIC SECTOR TAX RESOURCES

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 25, 2022 | Budget Law

In accordance with the Message of the National Budget Bill for the year 2023, revenues from national taxes and Social Security would reach ARS34,978.541 billion. In the absence of detailed information on the components of the tax revenue and its distribution, the exercise of reconstructing the apportionment of revenues by jurisdiction was conducted. The OPC recorded a difference of ARS125.96 billion between what would be collected and what is distributed.

This difference could arise from certain inconsistencies in the treatment of some revenues that in one case are considered as tax and in others non-tax. This raises the need to review the information historically submitted to Congress with respect to revenue and distribution.

On the other hand, a Separate Note was added to the Message on the concept of Tax Expenditure, resources that the Treasury does not receive due to treatments that deviate from the general rule of the different laws governing taxes, as a way of encouraging parliamentary discussion on them.

According to estimates of the Ministry of Economy, the total of those Tax Expenditures would amount to ARS3,664.818 billion next year (2.49% of the GDP), which are disaggregated into ARS2,669.761 billion for treatments included in the tax rules and ARS995.057 billion generated in economic promotion regimes.

Regarding the content of the Bill, there are 8 Sections that set the tax shares for the year for a total of ARS112.952 billion, and another 20 Sections on tax matters that imply a total of 204 measures, which are not explicitly analyzed in terms of their fiscal impact.

BUDGET BILL 2023 - NATIONAL PUBLIC SECTOR TAX RESOURCES

MARCOS MAKÓN SPOKE AT THE CONFERENCE CYCLE FOR THE 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE GENERAL AUDITING OFFICE OF THE NATION

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 24, 2022 | Activities

The director of the Argentine Congressional Budget Office (OPC), Marcos Makón, participated in the Conference Cycle Government Control and Transparency #30AñosAGN, organized by the General Auditing Office of the Nation (AGN, for its acronym in Spanish).

Thirty years after the enactment of the law creating the AGN, the entity held a conference cycle on the fundamental role played by the Auditing Office in the institutional environment of the Argentine Republic. The event was attended by authorities, officials from different governmental areas and specialists.

Marcos Makón made a presentation on the first day called “Status of control systems 30 years after the enactment of Law 24,156” and reviewed the background of the Law and its importance in making public finances transparent. The opening of the Cycle was in charge of the President of the AGN, Jesús Rodríguez, and María Elisabet Rodríguez Greno, from SIGEN, also participated in this first day.

BILL FOR THE CREATION OF A PENSION DEBT PAYMENT PLAN – FISCAL IMPACT ESTIMATE – OCTOBER 2022

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 24, 2022 | Cost Estimates

The purpose of this report is to analyze and estimate the fiscal impact of the Bill called “Plan de Pago de Deuda Previsional” (Pension Debt Payment Plan), which has been approved by the Senate of the Nation.

Two instruments are created through this Bill: the Pension Debt Payment Unit, aimed at people who have reached retirement age and have missed years of contributions; and the Contribution Cancellation Unit, aimed at employees, self-employed and simplified regime taxpayers who do not expect to reach the required years of contributions at the present time.

These instruments reopen the possibility of access to a semi-contributory benefit for individuals with missing contributions, making both genders equal in the possibility of accessing the program and allowing the regularization of a greater number of years than the moratoriums currently in force.

Under the assumptions made in the report, it is estimated that for the first year of the measure’s implementation the fiscal impact would be 0.27% of GDP, reaching 0.42% of GDP during the second year.

CROSS-CUTTING POLICIES IN THE 2023 BUDGET BILL

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 20, 2022 | Budget Law

In the 2023 Budget Bill, allocations to cross-cutting policies show heterogeneous real variations with respect to the projected closing for 2022: +0.1% for the gender equality policy, -11.7% for children and adolescents, -8.1% for the assistance to persons with disabilities and +14.0% for the sustainable environment and climate change policy.

The budget allocated to gender, children and disability policies does not contemplate the delivery of bonuses for income reinforcement, which were granted during 2022.
A financial reduction of 24.5% is forecast for the Alimentar card, after inflation is discounted. This drop could be greater since this benefit has accumulated as of October practically all the projected expenditure for the end of 2022.
The appropriation allocated to the Ministry of Women, Gender and Diversity shows a real drop of 10.4%, explained by the projected decrease in the Acompañar program. Within this entity, strong increases are expected in equality and diversity policies.
Significant increases are expected in the Conectar Igualdad program, within the policies oriented to children and adolescents, and in the SEDRONAR program of attention, assistance, and integration, within the framework of the cross-cutting disability policy.
More than half of the budget allocated to environmental and climate change policies is for water and sanitation infrastructure projects implemented by AySA and ACUMAR.

CROSS-CUTTING POLICIES IN THE 2023 BUDGET BILL

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – SEPTEMBER 2022

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 19, 2022 | Budget Execution

At the end of the third quarter, National Government accounts showed further negative results with a primary deficit of ARS1,741.198 billion and a financial deficit of ARS2,648.506 billion, which are 66.9% and 36.1% higher than those recorded in the same period of the previous year.

The fiscal deficit was ARS1,866.297 billion, 75.0% higher YoY.
Tax and Social Security revenues increased by 4.7% YoY and 6.2% YoY, respectively, which were not enough to offset the fall in other items.
In the first nine months of the year, total revenues fell 6.5%, basically due to the drop in the collection of the Solidarity and Extraordinary Contribution and the absence of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which were received in 2021.
Expenditures fell 14.7% in the third quarter. In the first quarter it had risen 18.4%.
Expenditure on social programs increased 9.8% YoY, basically because of the higher number of beneficiaries in Potenciar Trabajo and Alimentar programs.
At the end of the third quarter of the year, total expenditures amounted to ARS11,602.242 billion, equivalent to 71.2% of the current budget appropriation, with higher execution in social programs and lower in investments.