Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – MARCH 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Apr 18, 2024 | Public Debt Operations

In March, the stock of public debt payable in domestic currency reached ARS121,649.577, which implies an increase of 13.5% with respect to the closing of February. The amount payable in foreign currency remained at a similar level and reached USD258.766 billion on the last day of the third month of the year.

Eighty-two percent of bonds in pesos are adjustable by CER (Reference Stabilization Coefficient).
In March, the net issuance of peso-denominated debt amounted to ARS3,442.128 billion.
Securities payable in pesos for ARS43,829.631 billion were swapped.
Debt in foreign currency decreased by USD467 million with respect to February’s closing.
Debt in foreign currency for USD408 million was cancelled, mainly payments to multilateral credit organizations and to the Paris Club.
Estimated debt service for the April-September term in domestic currency amounts to ARS15,822.393 billion and in foreign currency to USD16.42 billion.
In March, payments to the IMF totaled the equivalent of USD4.156 billion.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – MARCH 2024

TRAINING ON PUBLIC FINANCE FOR LEGISLATIVE ADVISORS

by Nicolas Perez | Apr 11, 2024 | Activities

On Tuesday, April 9, the Argentine Congressional Budget Office (OPC) initiated a training program on issues related to public finances for the advisors of deputies and senators of the Congress of the Nation. The Director-General of the OPC, Gabriel Esterelles, together with the Director of Parliamentary Training of the Senate, Camila Duro, opened the training program at the Senate.

The purpose of the program is to introduce key issues for the interpretation of initiatives related to public resources and budget design to those who assist legislators in their work.

The program, jointly organized by the OPC and the Directorate of Parliamentary Training of the Senate, was designed around three main topics: taxes, expenditures and public credit, each of them to be addressed in two classes of two hours each, twice a week.

The sequence of face-to-face meetings is being held in different spaces of each Chamber to promote direct contact and facilitate the exchange of ideas.
This training plan, which will conclude on April 25, will be delivered by the directors of the OPC, with the assistance of their analysts:
Martín López Amorós, director of Fiscal Analysis, with Pedro Velazco and Emilio Nastri; Ignacio Lohlé, director of Budget Analysis, together with Laura Cafarelli, Julieta Olivieri and Romina Muras; Joel Vaisman, director of Sustainability and Public Debt Analysis, with Eugenia Carrasco.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – MARCH 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Apr 9, 2024 | Budget Execution

In the first quarter of the year, the National Government improved its financial and primary results with respect to the same period of the previous year: both were in surplus, as opposed to the deficits of the same period of the previous year. However, both were negative in the month of March.

The cumulative financial surplus amounted to ARS0.7 trillion and the primary surplus to ARS3.4 trillion.
Total revenues fell 4.1% YoY in real terms and total expenditures declined 30.7% YoY in real terms.
The proportionally more pronounced cuts were in capital expenditures (83.3%), transfers to provinces (85.1%) and subsidies (57.9%).
Pension benefits not supplemented with bonuses fell 42.0% YoY in real terms during the quarter, and those supplemented with bonuses fell 27.8% YoY in real terms.
Capital transfers to state-owned enterprises, provinces and municipalities and for educational equipment were reduced by more than 90%.
Interest payments increased 7.3%.
During the first quarter of 2024, expenditure authorizations were increased by 36.0% with respect to the initial appropriation (ARS14.5 trillion). The main increases were allocated to Family Allowances, transportation subsidies and interest.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – MARCH 2024

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – FEBRUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 20, 2024 | Public Debt Operations

At the close of February, the stock of public debt amounted to ARS105,161.038 billion and USD259.288 billion, which represented an increase for obligations payable in pesos of ARS13,574,567 billion and a decrease for those payable in foreign currency of USD8.702 billion with respect to January.

Interest of ARS204.475 billion and USD858 million was paid, of which USD781 million was paid to the IMF.
AL35 bonds in dollars were repurchased from the Central Bank for USD7.596 billion.
No net financing through Temporary Advances (TA) was recorded.
Maturities in pesos between March and June amount to ARS12,690.349 billion and in foreign currency USD4.657 billion.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 7, 2024 | Budget Execution

Due to a decrease in expenditures (-23.8% YoY) and a slight increase in revenues (+0.4% YoY), in the first two months of the year, the National Government recorded a financial surplus 150.0% higher in real terms than in the same period of the previous year.

The primary surplus, which does not include interest payments, was 1,805.5% higher than that obtained a year earlier.
Total revenues grew 0.4% in the year-on-year comparison, driven by increases in the PAIS Tax (405.9% YoY), in Export Duties (70.9% YoY) and in VAT (15.4% YoY). These increases were partially offset by the decrease in resources from Social Security (-25.1% YoY) and Income Tax (-36.5% YoY).
Total National Government expenditures recorded a real fall of 23.8% YoY in the first two months of the year and the cut in primary expenditures, which does not include the increase in debt interest, rose to 33.6% YoY.
Pensions (-33.0% YoY real), energy subsidies (-59.5% YoY real), capital expenditures (-82.4% YoY real) and social programs (-29.9% YoY real) were the items that most contributed to the reduction in expenditures. However, debt interest grew 34.2% YoY.
In February, the financial result was in deficit (-ARS186.635 billion), although in the first two months of the year the surplus was maintained (ARS1,020.296 billion), with levels above the average of a 15-year cycle.
Total accrued expenditures represented 24.0% of the budget, which is an extension of the budget in force during 2023.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NON-AUTOMATIC TRANSFERS TO PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

by Nicolas Perez | Feb 26, 2024 | Specific Budget Issues

During 2023, budget transfers made by the National Government to provincial and local governments totaled ARS1,934.885 billion. That amount implied 1.01% of GDP, 0.27 percentage points below the average of the previous 8 years.

The amount is equivalent to 13.5% of the resource revenue sharing regime, a percentage that varies greatly among the provinces.
Current transfers reached ARS1,455.969 billion (0.76% of GDP) and capital transfers ARS478.916 billion (0.25% of GDP).
The Fiscal Strengthening Fund of the Province of Buenos Aires was eliminated by Executive Order 192/2024 dated February 26, 2024. It is estimated that if the Fund had remained in force, it would have received ARS873.765 billion (0.14% of GDP) during the current fiscal year.