Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

THE OFFICE FOR THE DEFENSE OF THE RIGHTS OF CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS AND THE OPC PRESENTED THE MONITOR OF BUDGETARY ACTIONS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS

by Nicolas Perez | Aug 4, 2021 | Activities

Within the framework of cooperation actions between the two organizations, the Director of Studies, Analysis and Evaluation of the OPC, María Eugenia David Du Mutel de Pierrepont, introduced the new platform to governmental sectors involved in budget monitoring and evaluation and substantive sectors related to children and adolescents’ policies.

This OPC initiative, supported by the Office for the Defense of the Rights of Children and Adolescents, aims at democratizing information on budget allocations to improve the quality of life of children and adolescents in our country. The platform provides weekly updated information on the budgetary execution of programs aimed at this target population as well as the production of goods and services related to them.

Representatives from the Office of the Chief of Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Works, the Ministry of Health, ANSES and UNICEF-Argentina participated in the meeting organized by the Office for the Defense of the Rights of Children and Adolescents.

FISCAL IMPACT OF THE DIFFERENTIAL PENSION SCHEME FOR WORKERS AND CONTRACTORS OF VINEYARDS AND FRUIT ORCHARDS

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 28, 2021 | Cost Estimates

This report analyzes the Bill providing for the creation of a differential pension scheme for workers and contractors of vineyards and fruit orchards, so that they can access the benefit at 57 years of age, if they can prove 25 years of service and contributions.

It also provides for an increase of two percentage points (2%) in the employer’s contribution to the SIPA (Argentine Integrated Pension System).

According to OPC, the population covered by this project is estimated at 35,700.
On the revenue side, the fiscal impact of the 2 percentage points (2%) increase in employer contributions is projected at ARS131 million.

Based on the information available and under certain assumptions, the increase in the number of persons qualified because of the reduction in the retirement age (greater than or equal to 57 years of age) was estimated at 2,115 persons.

To estimate the impact of the higher expenditure, 5 assumptions were considered for percentages of retirement qualifications during the first year, ranging from 20.6% to 100% of the number estimated, with an expenditure of between ARS131 million and ARS634 million.

If 20.6% of the increase in retirement age cases are processed, the fiscal impact would be offset by increased revenues.

Under a hypothesis of 50% of the cases reaching retirement age, the fiscal cost would be ARS187 million, and with 100%, it would increase to ARS504 million.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE 2022 DRAFT BUDGET PROGRESS REPORT

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 26, 2021 | Budget Law

As of May 31, the National Government accumulated a primary deficit of ARS172.41 billion and a financial deficit of ARS395.35 billion, prioritizing spending on social services, which accounted for 69.1% of total expenditure.

These figures are contained in the 2022 Budget Draft Progress Report sent by the Executive Power to the National Congress at the end of June.

The report states that the fiscal and financial measures to alleviate the effects of the pandemic reached a sum equivalent to 6.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020, a proportion that would drop to 1.4% this year, with allocations to protect families and specific sectors.

Debt interest for this year is estimated to be equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. Apart from this, the report does not provide projections for 2021 and 2022.

Among the budgetary policy targets for the coming year are the management of the macroeconomy, the development of the country’s infrastructure, the strengthening of production, active social inclusion with a gender perspective, education, health, and public investment.

ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FIRST QUARTER 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 23, 2021 | Public Investment

With a significant rebound in expenditure on housing and urban planning, public investment (PI) executed during the first half of 2021 amounted to ARS296.98 billion, which jumped 107.2% in real terms compared to the execution of the same period in 2020.

This improvement is explained both by the increase in capital transfers, which rose 132% year-on-year, and by the higher direct real investment, which jumped 63%.

Thus, the highest proportion of the last four years with respect to primary expenditure was reached: investment represented 7.7%.

It accrued 38% of current appropriations, a percentage that climbed to 47.2% in housing and urban planning, one of the most outstanding items, which showed a year-on-year increase of 560.2%.
The execution of investment projects involved 452 works for a total of ARS64.62 billion. Of the main 20 -which account for more than half of the funds-, 14 were for the construction of highways and freeways.
Buenos Aires and Córdoba were the main recipients of the transfers to provinces and municipalities, which increased by 312.4%.
Fifty-four percent of disbursements were concentrated in the Pampas Region, where investment grew by 145.4% YoY.
Domestic sources accrued 46.3% of funds and showed an increase of 148.6% YoY compared to the same period a year earlier.

FISCAL IMPACT OF THE BILL THAT ESTABLISHES A REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR THE PRODUCTION, INDUSTRIALIZATION AND COMMERCIALIZATION CHAIN OF THE CANNABIS PLANT, ITS SEEDS AND DERIVED PRODUCTS FOR INDUSTRIAL OR MEDICINAL USE

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 19, 2021 | Cost Estimates

The Bill establishes a Regulatory Framework for the production, industrialization and commercialization chain of the cannabis plant, its seeds, and derived products for industrial or medicinal use, for which purpose it provides for the creation of the Regulatory Agency of the Hemp and Medicinal Cannabis Industry (ARICCAME), as a decentralized agency that will operate under the Ministry of Productive Development.

To measure the fiscal impact of the project, it is assumed that ARICCAME will start operating in the fiscal year 2022, since there are still steps to be taken in the legislative process for its approval and it requires the subsequent regulation by the Executive Power.

Given the experiences in other countries, no revenues are expected for the first year of operation of the Agency. On the expenditure side, an amount of ARS159.1 million is estimated for the next fiscal year.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – JUNE 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 15, 2021 | Budget Execution

Because of a real fall in National Government expenditures, mainly in pensions and government wages, and an increase in the different revenue categories, public accounts improved, and the primary deficit was ARS473.1 billion, 64.0% less than that of the previous year.

Revenues showed a real expansion of 18.7% year-on-year (YoY), with the Solidarity and Extraordinary Contribution (ARS144.4 billion) and the jump in Export Duties (97.9% YoY) standing out.
Primary expenditures contracted by 7.3% YoY, mainly due to the negative variations in pensions (9.6% YoY) and government wages (5.0% YoY). On the other hand, there were significant increases in capital expenditures (92.1% YoY) and in energy subsidies (43.9% YoY).
The level of spending on social programs fell in real terms compared to last year but was three times higher when compared to the same period of 2019.
The initial budget for the fiscal year increased by ARS273.32 billion, whose priority allocations were social programs (REPRO II, PROGRESAR and PAMI, among others) and the acquisition, logistics and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
As of June, approximately ARS177.33 billion were implemented to address the health crisis, equivalent to 43.3% of the current appropriation (ARS409.6 billion).
As of June 30, total expenditures amounted to ARS4.21 trillion, equivalent to 48.6% of the current budget appropriation, with government wages accounting for 60.0%.