ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – 2023

ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – 2023

Due to a more pronounced drop in Real Direct Investment, Public Investment decreased 7.3% in real terms during 2023, with an execution of 85% of the current appropriation for the year.

  • All functions decreased except for energy, because of the transfer of funds for the execution of the Néstor Kirchner Natural Gas Pipeline: transfers to ENARSA grew by 146.3% in real terms and are equivalent to more than half of transfers made to state-owned enterprises.
  • Transfers to trust funds fell by 41.8% year-on-year, and those to provinces and municipalities fell by 13.9% year-on-year.
  • Half of public investment (50.7%) was financed with resources from the National Treasury, which showed a real growth of 9.1% with respect to 2022.
  • A total of 20.8% of investment was financed with external credit.
  • The main investment project was the construction of the CAREM Phase II reactor.
  • The Ministry of Education accounted for 43.8% of total capital procurement, mainly for the purchase of computers under the Conectar Igualdad Program.
PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – JANUARY 2024

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – JANUARY 2024

  • As of January 31, 2024, the debt stock in pesos amounted to ARS91,591.133 billion and the debt stock in foreign currency amounted to the equivalent of USD267.99 billion.
  • This implied an increase of ARS7,719.312 billion and USD3.509 billion, respectively, compared to year-end 2023.
  • The Treasury obtained financing in pesos for ARS3,315.767 billion, mainly through auctions of CER-adjustable securities, and financing in foreign currency for the equivalent of USD14.363 billion.
  • Of these, USD9.644 billion were placements of Treasury bills to the BCRA for the renewal of similar instruments.
  • The IMF disbursed the equivalent of USD4.7 billion (SDR3.5 billion), enabled by the approval of the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
  • Debt maturities in domestic currency for the February to June 2024 term are estimated at ARS36,539.643 billion and those in foreign currency at USD6.874 billion, of which the largest amount is payable to the IMF for the equivalent of USD3.534 billion.
THE OPC PRESENTED THE LATEST BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT TO LEGISLATORS

THE OPC PRESENTED THE LATEST BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT TO LEGISLATORS

The Argentine Congressional Budget Office presented the latest published report on the Analysis of the National Government Budget Execution – January 2024 to national legislators and their advisors.

This is one of the periodic works conducted by the OPC with the purpose of monitoring revenues collected and expenditures accrued.

The presentation was given by the OPC Director, Gabriel Esterelles, together with the directors of Sustainability and Public Debt Analysis, Joel Vaisman; of Fiscal and Tax Analysis, Martín López Amorós; of Budget Analysis, Ignacio Lohle, and the analyst of this last directorate, María Laura Cafarelli.

The purpose of the online meeting was to provide members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as well as their assistants, with technical elements to improve the understanding of the monthly report disseminated through the OPC web page, offering, at the same time, the possibility of clarifying doubts about the methodology used and the results obtained.

The good reception of this new work modality was the basis for the decision to repeat it periodically to consolidate the technical dialogue between the OPC and the National Congress.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – JANUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – JANUARY 2024

During January, the National Government recorded a financial surplus 77.2% higher than that obtained in the same month of the previous year. This was the result of a greater decrease in expenditures, mainly related to social benefits, than the drop in tax revenues.

  • The primary surplus, which does not include interest payments, was 105.2% higher than a year earlier.
  • Total revenues contracted by 1.3% in the year-on-year comparison, driven by the fall in Social Security contributions
    (-26.5% YoY) and Income Tax (-40.3% YoY), partially offset by increases in the PAIS Tax (411.6% YoY) and in Export Duties (88.5% YoY). Partly due to the improvement in the exchange rate, partly due to regulatory changes.
  • Total National Government expenditures recorded a real fall of 11.9% YoY in the first month of the year, and the cut in primary expenditures reached 30.8% YoY.
  • Pensions (-32.5% YoY), social programs (-59.6% YoY) and personnel expenses (-18.0% YoY) were the items that most contributed to the reduction in expenditures. The absence of records for some programs had an impact on the item social programs.
  • However, debt interest grew 139.1% YoY, basically due to the payment of coupons on bonds issued after the restructuring.
  • Transportation subsidies increased 144.9% YoY, mainly due to subsidies to urban rail services.
  • In contrast to January 2023, no expenditure was recorded for energy subsidies.
ANALYSIS OF BILL “BASES AND STARTING POINTS FOR THE FREEDOM OF ARGENTINES” – REPORT 8 – NEW PENSION BENEFIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA

ANALYSIS OF BILL “BASES AND STARTING POINTS FOR THE FREEDOM OF ARGENTINES” – REPORT 8 – NEW PENSION BENEFIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA

The change proposed by the National Executive Branch implies adjusting the pension benefits by the current formula in the first quarter of the year and by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as from April.

  • Applied to the year 2023, the formula currently in force results to be less beneficial.
  • The current formula resulted in a 32.2% deterioration of the purchasing power of pensions whereas the formula proposed by the Executive Branch would have reduced this loss to 22% YoY.
  • This calculation does not include bonuses but only the automatic application of the adjustment mechanisms.
  • If inflation were to decelerate during 2024, pensions would lose in the first quarter but would then tend to recover.
  • If no bonuses had been granted, the National Social Security Administration (ANSES) would have recorded a surplus equivalent to 0.2% of GDP last year instead of a deficit of 0.3%. With the proposed formula, the fiscal cost would reach 0.7 p.p. of GDP due to the higher expenditure on pension benefits.
ANALYSIS OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE DECISION ON THE ALLOCATION OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXTENDED FOR 2024

ANALYSIS OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE DECISION ON THE ALLOCATION OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXTENDED FOR 2024

The 2024 Budget, which is the result of extending that of fiscal year 2023, increases the financial deficit by ARS158.596 billion, due to the adjustments in resources (-ARS320 billion) and expenditures (-ARS161.404 billion) by means of Administrative Decision No. 5.

  • Revenues are cut by ARS320 billion, funds related to the awarding of 5G service licenses.
  • A total of ARS108.092 billion was cut for election expenses, ARS500 million from the Supreme Court’s budget for maintenance and ARS52.812 billion for transfers to provincial pension funds.
  • Administrative Decision No. 5 provides for institutional adjustments due to changes in the government’s organizational structure.
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