Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – SEPTEMBER 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 20, 2023 | Public Debt Operations

Debt in domestic currency was repaid in September for ARS979.475 billion in principal and ARS63.996 billion in interest. The Treasury obtained financing in pesos for ARS2,232.028 billion.
Net borrowing in foreign currency amounted to USD2.114 billion.
Repayments of USD2.597 billion on the IMF Stand-by loan are due in October.
Between October and December, amortization and interest payments are estimated at ARS3,882.39 billion and USD5.456 billion, of which USD4.298 billion are for IMF loans.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – SEPTEMBER 2023

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – SEPTEMBER 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 12, 2023 | Budget Execution

Even with the real fall in National Government revenues, in the first nine months of the year, the financial deficit decreased 2.9% YoY (year-on-year) in real terms and the primary deficit decreased 10.9% YoY.

Revenues fell 4.5% YoY in real terms: 9.5% YoY decline in tax revenues and a 1.4% YoY increase in Social Security contributions.
Income Tax collection fell 11.0% YoY, driven by the use of the credit balance to offset other taxes, and Export Duties fell 62.0% YoY.
Primary expenditure was cut by 5.5% YoY, with more pronounced falls in family allowances (27.4% YoY), energy subsidies (24.1% YoY), and social programs (12.6% YoY).
On the other hand, the main real increases in expenditures were recorded in transportation subsidies (14.0% YoY), transfers to universities (12.5% YoY) and interest on debt (11.5% YoY).
Pension benefits paid by ANSES (National Administration of Social Security) fell 4.4% YoY.
Pension benefits updated only by the mobility formula (not covered by bonuses) showed a reduction in purchasing power of 13.8% YoY, while minimum pension benefits practically equaled inflation (0.5% YoY).
Year-to-date, current appropriation increased by 28.2% with respect to the initial amount, reaching ARS37,113.343 billion. The expenses that increased the most with respect to the initial appropriation were transportation subsidies (61.3%).

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – SEPTEMBER 2023

EVOLUTION OF GENDER-RESPONSIVE BUDGET ACTIONS 2019-2022

by Nicolas Perez | Oct 4, 2023 | Gender

Expenditure tagged with the initials PPG (for Gender Responsive Budgeting) by the Executive Branch reached in 2022 the equivalent of 19% of the total expenditure of the National Government and 4.1% of GDP.

The PPG Expenditure expanded by an average of 3.3% in real terms per year between 2019 and 2022, above the evolution of total expenditure (with an average annual growth of 0.3%).
Both the beneficiaries and the financial allocation of existing programs, such as the Alimentar Card and the Potenciar Trabajo program, grew, and others were created, basically to address gender-based violence (Acompañar program).
Other actions, such as those included in the Brisa Law and the Gender Identity Law, were given their own budget.
The Ministry of Social Development went from concentrating 8.0% of total PPG Expenditure in 2019 to 24.6% in 2022.

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL 0018-PE-2023 “BUY WITHOUT VAT” PROGRAM

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 28, 2023 | Cost Estimates

Bill 018-PE-2023 provides for the creation, as from January 1, 2024, of the “Buy without VAT” Program. This program establishes a refund of up to 21% of the expenses on goods of the Basic Food Basket (with a monthly ceiling equivalent to 21% of the value of the Basic Food Basket of a Type 2 Household) for a universe of around 21 million beneficiaries.

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL 0018-PE-2023 “BUY WITHOUT VAT” PROGRAM

ANALYSIS OF THE 2022 NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL REPORT

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 26, 2023 | Financial Report

The primary result of the National Government during fiscal year 2022 was negative by ARS2,915.619 billion, equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. Excluding the remission of profits of the Central Bank received in 2021, the primary deficit implied an improvement of 1 percentage point compared to that year.

Total revenues fell 12.7% year-on-year in real terms, and primary expenditures declined 7.4% YoY.

Interest on debt increased by 18.0% YoY, moderating the 5.6% YoY decline in total expenditure.
Due to differences between the mobility adjustment formulas and inflation, family allowances fell 2.4% YoY and general regime pensions fell 2.5% YoY.
Capital expenditures contracted 37.6% YoY, reflecting decreases in all items and recipients.
The financial deficit was 5.4% of GDP, lower than in the previous year.
A total of 96.3% of the budget increases were allocated through a Necessity and Urgency Decree (DNU).
The stock of public debt payable in foreign currency totaled USD264.032 billion, showing an increase of USD10.023 billion during 2022.
Debt in pesos increased by the equivalent of 4.8% of GDP, reaching 28.1% of GDP.
During the year, the deficit of the National Non-Financial Public Sector, which includes state-owned enterprises, trust funds and other national entities, increased to 5.0% of GDP.

ANALYSIS OF THE 2022 NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL REPORT

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – AUGUST 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 21, 2023 | Public Debt Operations

Government securities for ARS1,730.468 billion were placed in two auctions.
A disbursement of USD7.299 billion was received from the IMF and repayments of USD912 million and interest of USD778 million were paid to that organization.
There were net cancellations of Temporary Advances of the Central Bank for ARS500 billion, and the stock decreased to ARS4.09 trillion.
For September, maturities in domestic and foreign currency are estimated for the equivalent of ARS1,076.209 billion and USD768 million, respectively.
Maturities from September to December amount to ARS5,383.693 billion and USD6.237 billion.