The National Budget Bill for fiscal year 2025 estimates total revenues of ARS115.2 trillion (15.1% of GDP) and total expenditures of ARS117.6 trillion (15.4% of GDP). Consequently, the financial result for 2025 would be in deficit by -$2.3 trillion (-0.3% of GDP).
The bill introduces a new fiscal rule to preserve financial balance throughout the National Public Sector (NPS): any cut in projected revenues has to be offset by a necessary reduction in expenditures that are not subject to a legal minimum.
For FY 2025, a surplus of ARS0.19 trillion is projected for the NPS and a surplus of ARS6.2 trillion for the National Public Administration, excluding contributions and transfers to the rest of the public sector.
- The main expenditures subject to a legal minimum are pension benefits, family allowances, government salaries, transfers to universities for the payment of salaries and debt interest.
- The Gross Domestic Product would fall 3.8% in 2024, but it is estimated that it will rise 5% in 2025, supported by an increase in exports, private consumption and investment, which, after a 22% fall this year, would grow 9.9% in 2025.
- Inflation is projected to average 1.41% per month for next year, the rate at which the exchange rate would be adjusted, with an annual CPI of 18.3%.
- The total tax burden will increase 0.55 percentage points with respect to 2024.
- Total revenue from Wealth tax and VAT will fall, as well as from PAIS Tax. Income tax, taxes related to foreign trade, Social Security and others such as fuels or simplified-regime small taxpayers’ contributions would increase.
- Total tax expenditure related to the different economic promotion regimes would amount to 0.43% of GDP, with the Tierra del Fuego Regime standing out (0.18% of GDP).
- National Government revenues would grow by 5.1% YoY in real terms, mainly because of the revenues associated with Social Security (15% YoY), Foreign trade (41.1% YoY), VAT (0.3% YoY) and Income tax (10.1% YoY), offsetting the absence of the PAIS tax (-100.0% YoY).
- National Government expenditures would grow 3.7% YoY in real terms, mainly explained by Social Benefits (9.8% YoY) and personnel expenses (8.6% YoY), accounting for more than 80% of such increase. On the other hand, subsidies would fall 40.2% YoY in real terms.
An analysis of the provisions, the change of reference tax in tax expenditures and the investment projects included in the National Public Investment Plan 2025-2027 can be found in the annexes.