movilidad jubilatoria - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILLS ON PENSION BENEFIT ADJUSTMENT – REPORT OF PROPUESTA REPUBLICANA (PRO)

by Nicolas Perez | May 15, 2024 | Cost Estimates

This report complements the report published by the OPC on May 2, 2024, entitled “Fiscal impact of bills on pension benefit adjustment – Reports from the Committee on Social Security ”1 and includes the Report submitted by Propuesta Republicana (PRO).

For the purpose of estimating the fiscal impact of each Committee Report, a comparison is made between the pension benefit adjustment formula being proposed in each bill and the adjustment formula in force, approved by Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) 274/24. Likewise, a comparison is made with the formula in force up to March of the current year, established by Law 27,609.

The analysis is based on the macroeconomic assumptions made by the Ministry of Economy for the fiscal year, considering that the new regulation would be applied as from May. The formula under Law 27,609, was applied from January to March, and the one provided for by DNU 274/24 was applied in April.

The formula provided for in the bill establishes an expenditure equivalent to 7.21% of GDP (including bonuses), which would imply 0.38 p.p. more than the formula under Law 27,609 and 0.07 p.p. more than with the formula of DNU 274/24. In addition, the bill requires the National Executive Branch to cover the fiscal cost associated with the measures provided by means of a reduction in tax expenditures, as established in Section 2 of Regulatory Decree 1,731/2004.

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILLS ON PENSION BENEFIT ADJUSTMENT – REPORTS FROM THE COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL SECURITY

by Nicolas Perez | May 2, 2024 | Cost Estimates

This report analyzes the fiscal impact of four bills proposing amendments for the pension benefit adjustment formula currently in force, based on the reports of the Committee on Social Security of the Chamber of Deputies.

For the purpose of estimating the fiscal impact of each Committee Report, a comparison is made between the pension benefit adjustment formula being proposed in each bill and the adjustment formula in force, approved by Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) 274/24. Likewise, a comparison is made with the formula in force up to March of the current year, established by Law 27,609.

The analysis is based on the macroeconomic assumptions made by the Ministry of Economy for the fiscal year, considering that the new regulation would be applied as from May. The formula under Law 27,609, was applied from January to March, and the one provided for by DNU 274/24 was applied in April.

TRAINING ON PUBLIC FINANCE FOR LEGISLATIVE ADVISORS

by Nicolas Perez | Apr 11, 2024 | Activities

On Tuesday, April 9, the Argentine Congressional Budget Office (OPC) initiated a training program on issues related to public finances for the advisors of deputies and senators of the Congress of the Nation. The Director-General of the OPC, Gabriel Esterelles, together with the Director of Parliamentary Training of the Senate, Camila Duro, opened the training program at the Senate.

The purpose of the program is to introduce key issues for the interpretation of initiatives related to public resources and budget design to those who assist legislators in their work.

The program, jointly organized by the OPC and the Directorate of Parliamentary Training of the Senate, was designed around three main topics: taxes, expenditures and public credit, each of them to be addressed in two classes of two hours each, twice a week.

The sequence of face-to-face meetings is being held in different spaces of each Chamber to promote direct contact and facilitate the exchange of ideas.
This training plan, which will conclude on April 25, will be delivered by the directors of the OPC, with the assistance of their analysts:
Martín López Amorós, director of Fiscal Analysis, with Pedro Velazco and Emilio Nastri; Ignacio Lohlé, director of Budget Analysis, together with Laura Cafarelli, Julieta Olivieri and Romina Muras; Joel Vaisman, director of Sustainability and Public Debt Analysis, with Eugenia Carrasco.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 7, 2024 | Budget Execution

Due to a decrease in expenditures (-23.8% YoY) and a slight increase in revenues (+0.4% YoY), in the first two months of the year, the National Government recorded a financial surplus 150.0% higher in real terms than in the same period of the previous year.

The primary surplus, which does not include interest payments, was 1,805.5% higher than that obtained a year earlier.
Total revenues grew 0.4% in the year-on-year comparison, driven by increases in the PAIS Tax (405.9% YoY), in Export Duties (70.9% YoY) and in VAT (15.4% YoY). These increases were partially offset by the decrease in resources from Social Security (-25.1% YoY) and Income Tax (-36.5% YoY).
Total National Government expenditures recorded a real fall of 23.8% YoY in the first two months of the year and the cut in primary expenditures, which does not include the increase in debt interest, rose to 33.6% YoY.
Pensions (-33.0% YoY real), energy subsidies (-59.5% YoY real), capital expenditures (-82.4% YoY real) and social programs (-29.9% YoY real) were the items that most contributed to the reduction in expenditures. However, debt interest grew 34.2% YoY.
In February, the financial result was in deficit (-ARS186.635 billion), although in the first two months of the year the surplus was maintained (ARS1,020.296 billion), with levels above the average of a 15-year cycle.
Total accrued expenditures represented 24.0% of the budget, which is an extension of the budget in force during 2023.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

THE OPC PRESENTED THE LATEST BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT TO LEGISLATORS

by Nicolas Perez | Feb 16, 2024 | Activities

The Argentine Congressional Budget Office presented the latest published report on the Analysis of the National Government Budget Execution – January 2024 to national legislators and their advisors.

This is one of the periodic works conducted by the OPC with the purpose of monitoring revenues collected and expenditures accrued.

The presentation was given by the OPC Director, Gabriel Esterelles, together with the directors of Sustainability and Public Debt Analysis, Joel Vaisman; of Fiscal and Tax Analysis, Martín López Amorós; of Budget Analysis, Ignacio Lohle, and the analyst of this last directorate, María Laura Cafarelli.

The purpose of the online meeting was to provide members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as well as their assistants, with technical elements to improve the understanding of the monthly report disseminated through the OPC web page, offering, at the same time, the possibility of clarifying doubts about the methodology used and the results obtained.

The good reception of this new work modality was the basis for the decision to repeat it periodically to consolidate the technical dialogue between the OPC and the National Congress.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – YEAR 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Jan 17, 2024 | Budget Execution

During 2023, the National Government reduced its primary deficit by 0.3 p.p. of GDP and its financial deficit by 0.4 p.p. with respect to 2022. Such dynamics was the result of a contraction of primary expenditures (-7.0%) greater than that of resources (-5.9%).

Total resources fell by 5.9% due to lower revenues from Export Duties (-57.0% YoY) and Income Tax (-21.5% YoY), partially offset by higher revenues from PAIS Tax (+118.0% YoY) and VAT (+8.2% YoY).
Tax revenues reached 9.4% of GDP, 1.0 p.p. below 2022.
Non-tax revenues amounted to ARS308.651 billion from the awarding of 5G licenses, which boosted the increase (+61.2% YoY).
The largest declines in primary expenditures were recorded in Pensions (-6.1% YoY), Family allowances (-31.1% YoY), Energy subsidies (-26.5% YoY) and Capital expenditures (-12.9% YoY).
The purchasing power of pensions and family allowances was reduced by an average of 16.3% YoY, due to the application of the benefit adjustments under the “mobility formula”.
There was a lower financial assistance to CAMMESA (-34.8% YoY) and to ENARSA (-2.3% YoY), within the framework of the tariff segmentation policy implemented during 2023 and a lower value of natural gas imports, due to lower quantities and prices.
On the other hand, personnel expenses (+8.5% YoY), current transfers to provinces (+8.1% YoY) and transfers to universities (+6.2% YoY) increased.
Current appropriations increased by 39.3% during the year: transfers to provinces and social programs had increases above this annual average. Seventeen amendments were made, including two by means of Necessity and Urgency Decrees (DNU), which accounted for 83.1% of the increase in expenditure.